Not Quite a Treo 670 Sighting

I am and remain very skeptical about this whole idea of Palm releasing a WM device to market. Testing, yeah. Proof of concept model, yeah. Actually, bringing to market, I can't believe it.

First, it seems to me that it is a concession of defeat. Think of it this way, if Apple released a machine running WindowsXP would this be percieved as anything but bad, bad news for Apple? Second, the notion that Palm licensed WM and this has remained hush hush is mindboggling. Microsoft would have made sure this leaked and was in all the major tech news and there would have been nothing Palm could have done to stop it. Third, this model we saw in the video and pictures - Verizon labelled? Come on, Verizon never gets this kind of stuff first.

Finally, Palm and the PalmOS are one and the same, it would seem that the $30 mil spent to get the name is an acknowledgement of this fact. Why dilute the brand and undermine the massive effort that has been put into establishing the Palm image by releasing a device with a competing operating system? Palm has certainly made some bone-headed decisions over the years but this one, if true, would take the cake and could well be, finally, once and for all, the end of Palm.

Sometimes its not what you do see, but what you don't see. For more than a month now we've seen pictures (including videos and such) of a supposed Verizon branded 670 and even a 700. Now there's rumor of a Sprint 670. So the question is "what don't you see"??? What you don't see is a Cingular or Orange or Rogers 670 or 700 pic. This leads to a very obvious conclusion = EVDO. This is all that both Sprint and Verizon have in common. They are the US's two major CDMA carriers and they both have EVDO, which Sprint is supposed to open to the larger part of the US very shortly. I think the WM part is just fluff and "proof of concept" as was indicated in another comment. We all know Sprint got the 90 day exclusive on the 650. Then Cingular got it next. Verizon is rumored to be getting the CMDA RAZR and possibly the Motorola Q, while Cingular is rumored to be getting the iTunes phone. Discounting T-Mobile, Verizon, Sprint, and Cingular are the US's main providers. So with Verizon and Cingular expected to get the new toys (or at least to get them first), where does this leave Sprint? It leaves them with nothing! I can totally see Sprint also getting an exclusive on the 670/700, though I don't think the WM vs. Palm will be the differentiating factor. I think the difference will be the inclusion of EVDO support, something that supposedly Verizon was going to get when the 650 shipped, but we never saw a 650 with EVDO. Keep in mind that Verizon also got the latest Samsung which means Sprint is due for something soon. I am confident that the next few months will show a newer Treo w/ EVDO exclusive to Sprint for the short term. Whether it has Palm or WM is still an unknown.

Something else that can be observed from what you don't see instead of what you do see... where are the Linux Palms? We keep seeing purported images of future Treo's with WM or Cobalt, but none that show Linux. Why? My guess is that the other two are a lot easier to fake, but who can say for sure?

The final thing to observe is the lack of a codename. These always get leaked out a few months prior to the product release. The 650 was rumored to be called the "ACE". In fact, this proved to be more than rumor, as in my GoodLink console all my 650's are called ACE's which indicates that that was, in fact, its pre-release codename (obviously, GL had access to pre-productions units). So the question than is why we haven't seen a leaked codename yet? But if you remember back, everyone thought the next device out would be called the 610 or the ACE, then later it was called the 650. Following that logic, it makes one think that the "670" is the equivalent moniker of the "610" and that perhaps the "700" will be the true name just as the "650" was its true name.

Its all hard to say for sure. I find it ironic that someone would post the "pre-Sprint" description, but couldn't find a scanner or even take a pic with his cellphone. And every other supposed new one has one flaw or another that disqualifies it: one showed 200+ pics remaining at 1600x1200 resolution. That would mean 384Mb or more of RAM. The others mentions WiFi, etc, something that we have seen doesn't play well with GSM/CDMA as evidenced with the latest Samsung smartphone.

If I Were Palm's CEO...

Submitted by Jeff Kirvin

One of the questions I saw posted on the 1SRC chat this weekend intrigued me. What three things would I do if I were CEO of Palm? While I expect Ed Colligan to do a great job, I figure a little advice couldn't hurt.

Developer Support

The first thing I'd change would be Palm's horrible developer support. I've talked about this before. There is no reason, none, why developers like Jean Ichbiah, Paul Nevai and Steuart Dewar should have to guess about what Palm changed every time Palm rolls out a new device. There is no reason why software should break inexplicably.

Palm needs to reach out to developers and start a conversation. They need to show the code to the developers, at least the UI stuff. If they do change something, they need to let the developer community know months in advance of the device hitting the market so the software will already be patched and ready to go. Of course, this also means letting developers know when a new device is coming and whether or not it contains anything they should know about.

So I'd set up a developer section of the Palm discussion forum, and instruct the developers in the company to actively participate. I'd also have a team of one to five developers designated as community liaisons, whose sole job would be to convey information from the Palm developers to the developer community. They would surf the developer forum all day, every day, and see to it that any questions they can't answer directly get addressed. Time to stop playing around on this. The third party developer community is the lifeblood of any platform; just ask any OS/2 user.

Redesign and Clean Palm OS 5

Mr. Haitani, your table is ready... For those of you who don't know, Rob Haitani, formerly of Handspring and formerly of Palm, and now of Palm again, is the man who designed much of Palm OS. He's the one most directly responsible for the user interface we all know and love.

Who better to clean up the jumbled mess that Palm OS has become?

If I were Palm CEO, I'd have Rob assemble a team of whoever he needed to clean up and redesign Palm OS 5. Their goal would be the release of a Palm OS 5.5 that would be clean, consistent and well-documented within six to nine months. Bonus points if it's modular enough to be easily slipped into ROM updates for existing devices. Finally, the DIA implementation would be consistent across devices. The "find bug," now seen exclusively on the E2, would be gone forever. And finally, after lo these many years, Contacts will properly save state so you come back to a contact form as you left it.

Ahhhh...

Real Marketing

The third thing I'd do if I were Palm CEO is ditch most of the current marketing department and replace them with people that can actually do the job. Palm's biggest weakness is marketing, not engineering or design. On a 1SRC chat recently, a participant said they really wanted to see HotSync updated to support USB2 transfer speeds. A good suggestion, but there's one problem.

It already does.

On the T5 and LifeDrive (not sure about the E2), you can already sync at full USB2 speed. Why didn't this guy know about this? Because Palm's marketing didn't bother to tell anybody.

I've seen this phenomenon over and over again. Most people don't think you can have "real" PC documents like Word and Excel on a Palm. Some folks don't think Palms can play music in the background like Pocket PCs do.

If the point of a marketing department is to get information out to the public so people know the good stuff (and if the marketing department is really good, the bad stuff too and why that's okay) about your product, Palm's marketing department is a top notch spy organization.

So here's what I'd change if I were Palm's CEO. I'd start a blog, a real one. Not written by a flunky, written by me. Mark Cuban can write a CEO blog, so why can't Palm's CEO? Palm is a small, focused company, and that's the kind of company that would benefit most from some real communication with their customers.

I would hire a few Palm geeks, prominent members of the user community with established name recognition, to work for Palm and surf the various discussion boards all day. They'll be given full access to what's coming up at Palm, new products, and access to the developers. Their job will be to be Palm's face on the boards and talk openly and honestly with the users about Palm and Palm's products. There will be some limits to what they can say, obviously, but I'd tend to give them as much latitude as possible. Of course, they'd have to be thick-skinned enough to deal with the inevitable rabble, but I think most users would love to have a real Palm representative listening and participating on the boards, especially if that person can take issues straight to the developers.

And lastly, I'd improve the traditional marketing by focusing less on glitz (who is that guy on the boat with the kid, anyway? why do we care?) and more on utility. Why do people buy Palms? To make their lives easier. I'd have the marketing department focus on that with laser intensity. Why are Palms more effective than Windows Mobile or RIM? Every user should know the answer to that, or the marketing department isn't doing their job.

And I'd keep the orange logo. It's growing on me.

So that's my list. What would you do if you were Palm's CEO?

Palm Can Succeed Without Windows
The net was buzzing last week with vague speculation that Palm might build a device running Windows Mobile, maybe. It was a slow news week.

c|net reported on Thursday the comments of Palm Chief Financial Officer Andrew Brown. In an interview, Brown said, "CIOs don't get fired for using Microsoft products," and "The fact is we are Switzerland, whether it be over the e-mail server or the OS." This came hot on the heels of the Treo pictures and videos I talked about last week, leading many to consider the idea of a Windows Mobile Treo a "done deal."

But what did Brown really say? Nothing new, in fact. Palm has been claiming to be OS agnostic for years now. They've always been open to a Palm running Windows Mobile, but never seen the need for it. And still, I don't think they do. What would a Windows Mobile Treo really do for them? The enterprise market? That's why Treos can already sync with Exchange servers via ActiveSync. Between that and technology licensed from Good, Palm OS Treos can already match Microsoft and RIM products step for step. That no one seems to know this is a marketing problem, not a need for a new device. Aside from that, the Treo 650 can already do much of what Windows Mobile people have been waiting for in Windows Mobile 5.0. Palm OS already has persistent storage, better office applications and great one-handed navigation. So again, what would Palm get out of the deal?

Nothing, and I'm sure Ed Colligan knows that. I can understand Brown thinking Windows would be a good idea. From a marketing standpoint, it would increase their sales for a few quarters. CFOs don't tend to look more that a few quarters out anyway. But in the long run, it would make Palm just another Window Mobile licensee, without the marketing budgets and distribution partners that Dell and HP have. They'd lose much of what makes a Treo a Treo, and after the novelty wears off, they'll start to sink.

Nor could Palm offer a single piece of hardware with selectable OS "kits," something I've seen mentioned by Alan Grassia and Tyler Faux in their podcasts. Palm OS and Windows Mobile prefer different resolution multiples. Palm OS has always been based on multiples of 160 pixels with the exception of a few QVGA devices. The Treo 650 has a 320x320 screen, doubling each axis of the Treo 600. Windows Mobile devices have been based on a 240 pixel screen, either 240 across in a QVGA device or 480 across in a VGA device. While Windows Mobile 5.0 does support square screens for phone devices, it does not support a 320x320 screen. The options are 240x240 or 480x480, nothing in between. So unless you build the device with swappable screens (not likely) you can't run Garnet and Windows Mobile on the same hardware. (This point is moot if you're talking Cobalt or Cobalt-on-Linux, as those versions of Palm OS can run at Windows Mobile-friendly resolutions.)

if Apple released a machine running WindowsXP would this be percieved as anything but bad, bad news for AppleThe analogy is inapposite. How many times do people have to be reminded: PALM IS NOT PALMSOURCE!!! Unlike Apple, which creates its own hardware to run on its own software, Palm is a hardware company only!!! In some ways it makes sense that Palms would run on all available OS's out there --- indeed, this would reinforce their place as the premiere handheld computing company and reinforce the idea that "handheld computer" and "palm" are the same. I say all this as a MS-hater by the way.

These companys need to give us SOMETHING official, its making me mad...i mean the info is already leaked, cant they at least say if its fake or not??

MY point with Apple analogy was that the hardware and the software are inseparable for this company and to think otherwise, IMO, is foolish. You dilute the brand not strengthen it. Certainly, in the long term. BTW, Apple claims with great vigor that they are a hardware company not a software company (or is it the other way around).

As for Palm, when you are the only licensee of the OS of note. When your company is run by the people that introduced the PalmPilot. The difference between the OS and the hardware are inextricably intertwined. The appeal of Palm devices for me at least, is not just the OS and not just the hardware. It is a combination of the two. I know that when I buy Palm, there is a certain philosphy/approach to the total package that fits me. I believe that the approach has value and keeps Palm users coming back and is worth holding onto. I have my doubts that that "certain Palm flavor" can be retained in hardware only. In essence, I don't think that WM on Palm hardware will be a "Palm" device.

MY point with Apple analogy was that the hardware and the software are inseparable for this company and to think otherwise, IMO, is foolish. You dilute the brand not strengthen it. Certainly, in the long term. BTW, Apple claims with great vigor that they are a hardware company not a software company (or is it the other way around).

As for Palm, when you are the only licensee of the OS of note. When your company is run by the people that introduced the PalmPilot. The difference between the OS and the hardware are inextricably intertwined. The appeal of Palm devices for me at least, is not just the OS and not just the hardware. It is a combination of the two. I know that when I buy Palm, there is a certain philosphy/approach to the total package that fits me. I believe that the approach has value and keeps Palm users coming back and is worth holding onto. I have my doubts that that "certain Palm flavor" can be retained in hardware only. In essence, I don't think that WM on Palm hardware will be a "Palm" device.

Is there really a necessity for Palm to switch to Windows CE/Mobile? I was discussing this over at another forum and it seems to me that answer to this question depends on another question: What do people want to buy these days? And that in turn comes down to: what OS is selling best these days?

On this issue lots is said but I seldom do I see any real data. So I went looking for real data. I found some data from the Gartner group (analysts) about the amount of PDA's sold with a certain OS and it seems Palm OS was leading before and in 2004. 41,8 % percent of the PDA's sold in the wolrd had the Palm OS. In 2005 however, Palm OS only comes in third after Windows CE and the RIM blackberry. Palm OS sales are down 40% in 2005! To be fair the analysts did not include the Treo's (they think it's a smartpnone and not a PDA) and I gather they still beat the Blackberry in sales in North America, so this 'oversight' might totally change the outcome of this analysis! I made this page for an overview of the data:
http://www.personeel.unimaas.nl/M.Capalbo/PDA%20OS%20marketshare%202005.htm
The data comes from this article:
http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=483992
although I got them here:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2005/aug/1169384.htm

Now the question is, what does this mean? (Besides that the data might be altered hugely due to the exclusion of Treo's.) It means that for years palm OS was the dominant OS in the PDA market, but it's losing its advantage - fast! Might this supposed switch be a reaction to that? Get what the customer wants to buy? I sure hope not, but if the data are real maybe it's understandable. On a lighter note this might be an impulse to work on the Palm OS. I sure would like an update of the Palm OS that has memory protection!

Anybody else have (better) data on this issue?

All Palms has always had a Hardware disadvantage to WM PDAs. Because Windows is a memory and CPU hog, it needed Faster Processor with Bigger Memory to compete with the efficient and elegant PalmOS. So if Palm was releasing a WM Treo 670, they would be competing with other manufacturers on the same level with the same disadvantages.

Why wait for a WM Treo 670 when people can buy the Samsung i730 now? Verizon has been selling i730 for Two months already. It's about the same size as the Treo 670, it's got a bigger screen because the Keyboard is hidden via a slide. It supports EV-DO and has built-in WiFI. The only thing it doesn't have is a Camera. Treo's 670's Hardware can't compete - now that the OS is the same, What advantage will Palm have over other manufacturers? As Jeff Kirvin said - Palm needs some REAL marketing people. Real Marketing people would be promoting PalmOS, and differentiating themselves from competitors - not follow the sheep.

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