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No Going Back: The Age of the Smartphone

I was reading an interesting Business Week article earlier today about the evolution of smartphones (for some odd reason they prefer to call them ‘Killer PDAs’) which states that:

“Someday technological historians will debate the moment when the ubiquitous wireless phone ceased being just a phone and began taking on the trappings of other devices [PDA, MP3 player, movie player, eMail, digital camera, etc.], thus acquiring even greater cultural significance.  These future historians will all be able to agree that by the year 2006, the wireless phone and PDA had completed the first stages of their evolutionary marriage.  The result: A plethora of devices [notably our Treo] that provide a wide range of features and capabilities, from connecting to corporate e-mail systems to displaying video clips and playing music during those less productive moments of our lives.”

This prompted me to think about how likely it is that our Treo in particular and other smartphones in general will continue to rise and eventually account for a very large proportion of all mobile phones sold worldwide – up from a fractional percentage today to 30% in 10 years time? 

To reach this level of penetration both the rate of growth (the number of people attracted to a smartphone) and the retention rate (the number of people sticking to their smartphone as their preferred device from generation to generation) will have to achieve very high percentages. 

I personally cannot image that I will ever again own a ‘normal’ phone or even one of the so-called ‘feature’ phones but I’m naturally curious to see how other Treonauts feel:

No Going Back?
1. If you currently own a Treo smartphone, how likely is it that you will purchase another Treo in the future?

  Guaranteed
  Very Likely
  Somewhat Likely
  Not Likely
  Never Again

2. If you currently own a Treo smartphone, how likely is it that you would purchase a generic (not Treo) smartphone in the future?

  Guaranteed
  Very Likely
  Somewhat Likely
  Not Likely
  Never

3. If you do not currently own a Treo, how likely is it that you would purchase a Treo or other generic smartphone?

  Guaranteed
  Very Likely
  Somewhat Likely
  Not Likely
  Never

Click Here To View Current Results

Killer PDAs Are Coming Your Way [BusinessWeek]

Treonauts are always one step ahead of the future


Posted by Andrew on July 6, 2006 at 02:59 PM

Treo Surveys & Polls

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Treonauts asks this question about the Treo - For all those happy Treo owners out there, could you own a regular phone again? How about a smartphone that isn't a Treo? Even though every Treo I've owned has had it's... [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 21, 2006 2:28:51 PM



Comments

1
by SIMON | Jul 6, 2006 8:17:24 PM

until the treo or some other smartphone will become the size of some of the normal phones now, i will always have a normal phone as backup to my treo or vice versa.

sometimes i don't need the firepower of my treo and just need a small phone to carry and make calls.

2
by Arny | Jul 7, 2006 10:10:50 AM

Isn't this survey a bit slanted towards the Treo? After all this is a Treo related blog.

3
by Adrian | Jul 7, 2006 8:28:40 PM

We realy need a screen like QTek 9000 with 480x640 pixel. All Treos are Useless for Real World Internet access, like banking, trading, e-mail, or even when you like to manipulate a excel sheet with document to go its awfull.

Bevor i used many Palms and at the end the Sony Z90.... and then the Treo650 with a tiny Screen. Even Palm TX hase a better screen

If you look at the Qtek 9000 or the 9100 and the new Qtek/HTC. 9600..

Now Palm stops the 650 for Europe and even the 700p has the same useless tiny screen.

If Palm not have a new Design like QTek / HP
wit VGA or 1/2 VG Screen many Users will change to a Windows Plattform.

Me two, afther using Palm since 1992...

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